When I first started this channel in November last year, I predicted in a video that Trump would win the election because Biden made a major strategic mistake by instigating the Ukraine war, causing the US to miss a critical historical opportunity to weaken China. The Chinese government also made many mistakes during the same period, but in comparison, China stabilized after intense internal conflicts, navigated the pandemic crisis, and saw its economy recover from rock bottom to a steady footing, slowly moving forward. Meanwhile, the US became trapped in a debt crisis. Even after exporting economic problems through dollar repatriation, the US economy still failed to address its fundamental issue of generating sustainable growth. Relying on Wall Street financial capital and Silicon Valley elites to hype AI cannot resolve the core crisis of the decline in American manufacturing.
At the time, many people believed the election would be highly competitive, especially after the Democrats replaced Biden with Harris, who received substantial political donations. The left’s support for her was not just verbal; they were fighting with their wallets. However, I predicted the election would be a foregone conclusion, with Trump certain to win. This was not because I am particularly brilliant but because it was clear that the right and traditional white Americans were backed into a corner. If Trump failed to win re-election, dozens of charges would be enough to keep him in prison for life. The left would then break the political balance, continue open immigration policies, and use new immigrants’ votes to dilute Republican support, effectively eliminating the GOP’s chance of recovery.
The left was overly optimistic and confident, ignoring the major strategic mistakes Biden made during his four years in office and his poor domestic economic performance. They believed they controlled social media, with giants like Google and Meta naturally supporting the Democrats. However, when Musk acquired X and TikTok was pushed into a corner by Biden, I also pointed out that TikTok and X, especially with Musk’s full commitment, would completely dismantle the Democrats’ media advantage. For the left, they were fighting a routine election battle, but for Trump and traditional white Americans, losing meant it could be their last election.
As a result, they would fully mobilize, silencing anti-Trump forces within the Republican Party. The right had to invest with unprecedented intensity to counter their electoral disadvantage. The Democrats were defending their governing position, while MAGA supporters were defending their homeland. This difference in mobilization levels produced entirely different voter turnout. Even now, the US remains a left-leaning country, but the Republicans hold power and control both houses of Congress, appearing strong, though they face significant pressure.
If they fail to deliver impressive results this time, losing the next election could make it nearly impossible for them to recover. Do not forget that the economically prosperous states of California and New York are Democratic strongholds. MAGA supporters cannot explain why economically advanced New York and California attract homeless people who vote with their feet to seek opportunities there. These individuals have voting rights, and supporting them allows Democrats to claim the moral high ground, further influencing young voters. Charlie Kirk may win debates with college students, but he cannot win their support. After his assassination, many young people celebrated on social media. This is a major challenge for the Republicans: the Democrats hold key assets like young people and immigrants, who are highly promising voter bases. This time, the Democrats were careless, failed to mobilize fully, and lost. Next time, when they strike back, their mobilization will be beyond imagination.
Due to the Trump administration’s support for Israel’s relentless expansion of the war in Gaza, the once-neutral TikTok has been fully captured by the left. Combined with traditional left-leaning social media giants like Meta and the Indian-led YouTube, it is hard to imagine that X, along with traditional media like Fox, can counter these young voters in the next election.
Trump’s return to the White House and his insults toward Biden and the Democrats have completely abandoned the basic demeanor of a statesman, alienating even traditional Republican elites like Bush. Moderate figures like Haley, who once showed promise, have been marginalized by the MAGA-dominated Republican Party. Deciding who will run next time is a significant issue. Someone like Vance, a spineless opportunist, cannot win. People need only compile a video of his past statements calling Trump America’s Hitler alongside his servile loyalty as vice president, play it on repeat, and he would be politically finished.
No matter who runs, they will face the record of Trump’s four years in office. Trump must address major voter concerns, or he will face punishment at the polls. His promises to farmers have already failed, with MAGA farmers crying in their soybean fields, pleading for solutions. Bringing manufacturing back to the US has not gone smoothly either. Tariffs on Chinese goods have only increased imports from Vietnam and Mexico, which still rely on Chinese components, further integrating with China’s supply chain. Even tech giants like TSMC, forced to invest in the US, hire only high-skilled workers, failing to benefit Trump’s redneck MAGA base.
From China’s assertive stance in the trade and tech wars, it is clear that after years of preparation, China has no intention of yielding to Trump. Putin shows no signs of stopping the Ukraine war or conceding to the US either. After Trump’s widespread tariffs on allies and other nations, the US faces unprecedented diplomatic isolation. With the national debt spiraling out of control, Trump can only deflect blame by constantly criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.
If there are no tangible achievements, leveraging Charlie Kirk’s case for political struggle is a smart move to shift focus and consolidate the base. For the left, Kirk’s death provides an opportunity to attack the Republican stance on guns and their role in escalating social tensions. The celebration by many young people on social media gives the left hope to rally younger voters, eagerly using this event for political mobilization. For both sides, this assassination case holds significant value.
The right will launch a witch hunt, expelling those who celebrated Kirk’s assassination, with some even calling for a reckoning against the Democrats and the left. Meanwhile, the left will seize the moment to rally, raising the banner of resisting fascism and reclaiming power. Both sides portray the other as the enemy, transforming America’s internal conflicts into a friend-or-foe divide. The next election will be critical for both.
Here, I will make another prediction, though events years from now are too uncertain, so this is just entertainment for discussion. I expect the Republicans will lose the next election, and lose badly. Several key reasons support this:
1. Harsh anti-immigrant policies have alienated too many voters; they may win debates but lose votes.
2. Unconditional support for Israel and the tragedy in Gaza have galvanized the left, who will not concede.
3. While Trump targets American universities, he cannot change students’ political leanings; young people will vote and mobilize their friends and family.
4. Economically, significant achievements are unlikely; the US debt issue, a long-standing problem, is essentially unsolvable.
5. Compromising with China would lose MAGA votes, but taking a hardline stance cannot defeat China and would harm the US, an unsolvable dilemma. 6. Allies and other nations, initially favoring the US, have become spectators. In a one-on-one contest with China, they are waiting to see who wins and will not easily back the US. All of this stems from Trump’s arrogance and recklessness.
That concludes this video. I hope everyone actively shares their views, and we will see you next time.