On December 4, deep into the night, the US government released the National Security Strategy report for the new term. It explicitly declared the restoration of the Monroe Doctrine. Trump went even further by announcing a strategic shift toward China, no longer treating China as a priority. The core of the Monroe Doctrine is straightforward: the United States does not interfere in European affairs, no other great power may intervene in the Americas, and the Americas belong to the people of the Americas. This perfectly aligns with Trump’s actual moves: demanding allies raise defense spending to 5%, reducing reliance on US forces, and contributing more themselves. At the same time, he is aggressively pushing Zelenskyy and Ukraine toward a ceasefire, even willing to negotiate directly with Putin while completely excluding Europe and Ukraine from the talks. It is clear he is desperate to extract the United States from the Ukraine war and does not care about the interests of Europe or Ukraine.
As the China-Japan conflict continues to escalate, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made a statement. He clearly said the United States will not intervene in a war caused by an ally’s reckless behavior. He warned the authorities in Taiwan and Japan not to change the status quo, because Americans will not travel to the other side of the planet to fight a war started by them. Many people suspect Trump is trying to deceive China, waiting for China to lower its guard before delivering a fatal blow. I do not buy that conspiracy theory. I believe he is sincere because he has more than enough motivation.
Some people suspect Putin holds compromising material on Trump, which is why Trump keeps making concessions to Russia. Yet that theory cannot explain why Trump is also conceding to China, repeatedly floating the G2 concept and even planning to visit China to divide spheres of influence with Xi Jinping. The answer lies in Trump’s core governing principle: Make America Great Again. To make America great again, the first step is to revive American manufacturing. After nearly eight years of trade and technology wars with China, the United States has no chance of crushing Chinese manufacturing or fully containing Chinese technology. Still, the US has gained something: the brutal struggle has split global supply chains into two systems, the red supply chain dominated by China and the Western supply chain dominated by the United States. The red supply chain is undeniably more influential at present because China is the undisputed factory of the world. However, given time, the Western supply chain led by the United States can grow.
China’s rare-earth sanctions made the United States realize it cannot completely turn against China right now, otherwise re-industrialization would be impossible, since many industrial raw materials and components still depend on China. Therefore, proposing G2 is not a trick; it is simply buying time for American re-industrialization. Europe’s industrial strength is declining rapidly due to radical left-wing policies. The only real obstacle to the US-led Western supply chain lies in its East Asian allies: Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The United States has already accepted that Taiwan cannot be held, so it forced TSMC to move production to America. Japan and South Korea cannot rival China in manufacturing overall, but within the Western supply chain they are far ahead of everyone else. That is why Trump has repeatedly criticized and even humiliated Japan and South Korea in public, forcing them to commit massive investments to the United States. From the American perspective, Japan and South Korea will be on the front line against China in the future; they cannot become the manufacturing base for the Western camp. Moreover, in the eyes of many Americans, East Asians will never truly be “one of us.”
Japan, led by Sanae Takaichi, provoked China first, which is exactly what Trump wanted to see, but for Japan itself this is extremely dangerous and extraordinarily foolish. The United States wants every company to feel that Japan and South Korea could become battlefields at any moment. When companies consider expansion and investment, they will treat war as a real risk factor. Under these circumstances, Europe faces Russian military threats and an energy crisis, Japan and South Korea face threats from China and North Korea, and Russia could jump in at any time. That leaves the United States as the only ideal investment destination for the Western supply chain.
Many people mock the idea that the United States can ever re-industrialize. I disagree. I believe that with the right strategy, the United States still has a chance to complete re-industrialization before its dollar hegemony and technological hegemony collapse. Of course it will be difficult, because China is not stupid and will do everything possible to maintain its industrial advantage over the United States. The competition between the two sides will center on industry. Even if we take a step back, if the United States gives up now and does nothing to restore industrial production, it will lose its dollar hegemony, technological hegemony, and military hegemony within 15 years and be completely overtaken by China. Re-industrialization is hard right now, but it has to be done; there is no second option.
With Canada providing resources, Mexico and other Latin American countries providing labor, vast territory, and a population of 350 million, the United States has enormous potential. But if the United States goes to war with China because of its East Asian allies, everything will be interrupted. Treaty obligations mean the United States cannot abandon them entirely; at the very least it would have to supply weapons and send a token force. With current US industrial capacity, it is basically impossible to win a war against China. Of course, nuclear war remains an option, but that is the doomsday choice and would only be considered if the American homeland itself were being destroyed.
For China, the priority remains continuously strengthening military power. Defense industry costs money, yet building hard national power is the foundation for deterring war and safeguarding peace. Moreover, the defense industry drives cutting-edge technological development that benefits civilian society. China must also find ways to reduce dependence on the dollar and SWIFT, actively expand its global presence, and seek more overseas bases to protect sea lanes. Since the trade and technology wars began in 2018, China has lost the historical opportunity to keep a low profile. No matter what mistakes the Chinese government may have made in the past, there is no time for regret now. The only path forward is to stare down the pressure and compete head-on with the United States, defeating it fair and square. Hesitation will cause allies to drift away and make other countries afraid to support China. America’s attack dogs will then provoke China without restraint and harm Chinese interests with impunity.
Personally, I have never had warm feelings toward Russia because of too much historical baggage. China lost vast territories because of Russia, and many Chinese died under Russian blades. However, if Russia is willing to make substantial concessions and respect China’s strategic demands, I believe a formal alliance can be considered, and China could defend Russian interests in return. To be honest, after Stalin’s death, when China and the Soviet Union fell out, the fault was not entirely on the Soviet side; China bore significant responsibility too. The Russian contribution to China’s modern industry and defense technology was enormous and cannot be erased. Chinese and Russians should consider letting go of historical grievances, just as Ukraine and Russia originally did not have to fall into war.
Many Russian netizens find my emotions hard to understand. Here is a simple example: Vladivostok is China’s Crimea in Chinese hearts. Put yourself in our shoes; can such feelings be easily set aside? Outer Mongolia also left China because of the Soviet Union. The Chinese people have memory. Russia still maintains deep ties with India today, which Chinese people do not like to see. A genuine alliance requires both sides to give up many interests in pursuit of greater common benefit. China can help Russia rise again as a world superpower, but Russians cannot always expect China to pay one-sidedly. Tell us honestly what you can offer China.
I have always been pro-American. In the words of some Chinese netizens, I am an American lapdog, a spiritual American. I believe in universal values, freedom, and democracy. Yet my yellow skin and black eyes mean I can never betray my own people. Between China and the United States, this is not an ideological struggle; it is a contest of national interests. On this battlefield, the Chinese people must unite to defeat the United States, achieve national reunification, and realize the rejuvenation of the nation. Although reunifying Taiwan would not make me happier than my son scoring perfect marks, it is indeed quite important. I am willing to spend a little traffic and click “like” on the news for it.
Finally, a word to Americans: peace is the best choice. If you are unwilling to respect the Chinese people, think very carefully. You would be preparing for an apocalyptic war that would destroy us both against a nation of 1.4 billion people with tens of millions of engineers and hundreds of millions of skilled workers. You will not escape unscathed. Bombs will explode at your doorsteps. Your fathers, brothers, and sons could lose their lives at any moment. This is completely different from your wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, or Vietnam. Cherish peace, friends. We Chinese only want a quiet environment to tighten screws. Do not try to take even that right away from us. We can make cars and phones, and we can also make aircraft carriers and fighters. Keep your attack dogs on a leash and stop provoking China.
To the people of the rest of the world: China is a brand-new superpower with no expansionist ambitions. Your historic opportunity to change your fate has arrived. Jump aboard the Chinese express while you still can; the chance will not last forever.