Two major news events happened simultaneously: Putin visited India, and Macron visited China. Yes, this is a new round of international chess game. Macron should have realized that China will not make concessions to Europe or stop trading with Russia. Continuing to confront China brings no substantial benefits to Europe. The only correct path is to put down hostility, join hands with China, and push for lasting peace in Ukraine.
Putin has also begun preparing for the possible failure of Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Although the Trump administration has put strong pressure on Zelenskyy, Europe seems unable to accept a humiliating surrender and insists on continuing to support Ukraine even without US backing. Trump dares to reduce aid to Ukraine but dares not completely stop support, because Ukraine represents both risk and opportunity for Europe. Once Europe achieves military autonomy through the Ukraine war, the US will no longer be able to restrain Europe. Therefore, Putin is trying to secure as much support as possible, and India is the best target: large national size, close historical ties with Russia, and a major customer for Russian oil and gas. Although India has almost no products to sell to Russia, India’s demand for energy is a vital guarantee for Russia to obtain sustained funding for the war. Both Europe and Russia are making every effort. Once the Americans withdraw, the outcome between the two sides will be decided by a hair’s breadth, and every major power becomes an object of courtship.
My goddess Palki Sharma also reported on Putin’s visit to India, where he received high-level reception from Modi. The topics discussed had been predicted earlier: mainly military cooperation and energy cooperation; everything else was just for show. The Russians hold what India wants: fifth-generation fighters and third- and fourth-generation nuclear power technology. In return, India can provide a steady stream of money to buy Russian oil and gas resources. As for the traditional friendship between the two countries, as Palki said, that is ancient history. After World War II, the Soviet Union was a superpower, New Delhi was protected by Moscow, and the relationship was one of looking up in awe. Today, Russia’s GDP ranks 11th in the world while the Bharat empire ranks 4th, so Palki believes the essence of the relationship has changed. It is no longer one-sided dependence but equal mutual assistance. From the current needs of both sides, this is indeed the case. Neither Russia nor India has a better choice. Moreover, neither country has a good record of honoring agreements. Russia has cheated India out of huge sums in arms purchases, while India paid for oil and gas in rupees, cheating Russia in turn. Therefore, cooperation between the two countries will definitely be very exciting. We can prepare beer and snacks and keep watching.
Russia’s oil and gas industry has been hit by severe Western sanctions. Apart from China, the only country buying on a large scale is India. However, India lacks the same capital as China to confront the US. China has already slapped the US in the face with actual actions and will never accept any US orders or blackmail. Facing high US tariffs, H1B visa restrictions, and financial cards the US has not yet played, India actually has no effective means of retaliation. Trump does not really care about Ukraine; he cares about the US oil and gas industry. His big donors urgently need Indians to buy American shale oil and gas instead of Russian resources. A few days ago, under pressure, India signed an agreement to buy US LPG and opened part of its agricultural market. This counts as formally kneeling to the US. Note that this was India’s unilateral concession when the US made zero concessions and did not even ease sanctions. Yet the Americans are still not satisfied, and negotiations continue. If India now meets Putin’s demands and buys large quantities of Russian oil and gas, it will not only offend Europe but also give Trump a reason to escalate sanctions against India. In an extreme scenario, if the US and the West kick India out of SWIFT, the country would go bankrupt immediately, because the Indian rupee is worthless on the international market and India has no valuable goods to exchange with other countries.
But if India cannot meet Putin’s demands and buy Russian oil and gas on a large scale, Putin is not stupid: nuclear power technology and Su57 fighters will remain only a dream for India. For India, nuclear power technology can greatly alleviate its energy and environmental crises and significantly boost national strength. Europe and the US will never transfer advanced nuclear technology to India; the US has always strictly blockaded nuclear technology. As for fifth-generation fighters, the Americans dangled the F35 in front of India for more than a year, yet India not only failed to meet the conditions to buy the F35 but also suffered higher taxes and diplomatic humiliation. In the May 7 air battle, the Indian military suffered a crushing defeat, Pakistan has confirmed it will equip the J35, and India is facing unprecedented international ridicule. The dignity of a world power has been completely destroyed. Almost all South Asian countries, including the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh, are moving away from India and closer to China. In particular, the anti-India iron triangle of Pakistan, Bangladesh, and China will use Chinese weapons to create India’s defense nightmare. It is said that Chinese companies are actively planning a railway through Myanmar to connect Bangladesh and China. If this vision is realized, India will be completely surrounded and become an isolated island. Therefore, Modi’s need for Putin is also enormous.
I believe the two countries can easily issue friendly cooperation statements, but the difficulty lies in implementation. Russian military-industrial enterprises have cheated India many times in the past. Ukrainian hackers revealed that the radar data on India’s MiG29K carrier-based aircraft was falsified and could not effectively identify targets; Russian companies tried and failed to fix it. This explains why India’s dual-carrier battle groups dared not participate in the India-Pakistan air battle. In the Gorshkov aircraft carrier refit project, Russia sold the carrier for 1 dollar and ended up making India pay a whopping 2.9 billion dollars. The Su57 fighter was originally a Russia-India joint project; after India paid, it found it could not access any core technology, so it angrily withdrew and all previous investment went down the drain.
India is no moral model either. When the Russia-Ukraine war was deadlocked, India judged that Russia might not win, so Modi made a high-profile visit to Kyiv and showed friendship with Zelenskyy. India used its worthless rupee to buy Russian oil and gas, leaving Russia unable to buy anything valuable on the international market. Finally, at Russia’s insistence, India was forced to agree to pay in renminbi.
The upper limit of Russia-India cooperation is that it must not harm China’s national interests, because the country Russia needs most right now is China, not India. The upper limit of India-Russia friendship is that it must not harm the interests of the US and Europe, because the US holds a big stick and Europe has enough countermeasures against India. So agreements can be signed casually, but actual cooperation space is very limited. The fundamental reason is that India is not a true great power, and Russia cannot leave China. Indian media can cheer about Russia-India friendship, but they also have to face the fact that Russia-China economic exchanges are huge, they have mutual visa-free travel, and their diplomatic positions are highly aligned. After all, China and Russia share a border, while India and Russia are separated by thousands of mountains and rivers. China and Russia are complementary, while India mainly depends on Russia for technology.
Finally, best wishes to Russia and India. May they set a good example of cooperation for all countries in the world. Global audiences are waiting with melon seeds. I am certain the victim will definitely be the Bharat empire. High Priest Modi will always be only a supporting actor in front of Emperor Putin.
wont you tell what percent of that transaction of total russian india trade happened in toilet currency that is yuan,