A netizen reminded me that Russia plans to transfer Su57 technology to India and asked whether this would threaten China. This is indeed reliable information that has emerged recently. Russia has officially put forward the proposal, but India has not yet formally agreed. Personally, I believe the deal will be finalized during Putin’s visit to India in December because India has no real alternative. The United States is highly unlikely to sell the F35 to India and would certainly attach conditions New Delhi finds unacceptable, while a cash-strapped Russia will impose far fewer restrictions. Moreover, given India’s relatively backward technological base, Russia has no fear that India will reverse-engineer its weapons and eventually break free to build an independent research and development system. The more Su57 aircraft India buys and produces, the deeper it will be locked into the Russian weapons ecosystem.
In fact, around seventy percent of the current equipment in the Indian armed forces comes from Russia. Although the Russo-Ukrainian war and the declining reputation of Russian weapons have pushed India to purchase large numbers of Rafale fighters from France, the overall national strength and industrial depth of France simply cannot compare with Russia. In recent days, reports have surfaced that the United States and Russia have reached an agreement to cease fire in Ukraine. I consider these reports quite credible. Russia will gain breathing space, its international standing will rise significantly, and it is almost inevitable that it will reclaim its dominant share of the Indian arms market. This United States Russia compromise is a major event that could reshape the global order, and I will continue to follow it closely and comment in future videos.
Anyone who follows international news will know that Russia India cooperation is not limited to the military sphere. Russia has also openly offered to transfer nuclear power technology to India to improve its energy supply. This is another huge gift package for India. Friends, the only country that can truly rescue India from its energy crisis is Russia. Oil and natural gas are not the ultimate answer. Civilian nuclear power technology is. If India can board Russia’s energy express, its future development will be secured. The package Putin is offering Modi is one that Modi can neither refuse nor find any reason to refuse, especially after Trump has repeatedly humiliated and sidelined India.
So what does all this mean for China? We must recognize that throughout the past few years of the Russo-Ukrainian war, China has in fact supported Russia. Yet the Russians, especially Putin, believe China’s support has been insufficient, limited only to the economic domain. In the field of military technology, China possesses large quantities of components and equipment that Russia urgently needs, items even Pakistan has obtained while Russia has not. Putin harbors some resentment toward China on this account. Therefore, Russia will not care about China’s feelings when deepening military and technological cooperation with India. The Chinese government fully understands Russia’s decision-making logic and will not be foolish enough to try to interfere with Russia India cooperation.
However, the enmity between Russia and Europe is already irreconcilable, so in the short term Russia will not risk offending China. The foolish things Trump is doing will push the world toward genuine multipolarity rather than the G2 structure he desires. He and Xi Jinping cannot decide major international events through bilateral meetings alone. Once Russia extricates itself from the Ukraine war, it will immediately resume its role as a major political, economic, and military power influencing Europe, Asia, and the Arctic. Such a landscape benefits India, but China long ago anticipated this possibility and has prepared ample contingency plans. We are in no hurry.
Russia has already lost the ability to engage in an arms race with China or the United States. It has no capacity to develop or produce high-end chips and must buy them from China. If China stops selling, almost all of Russia’s advanced weapons become impossible to manufacture. The same applies to other electronic equipment, rare earths, and advanced materials, none of which Russia can produce domestically. Its heavy industry has shrunk to only a few key sectors such as energy and the military, while light industry has been almost completely lost. Russia is no longer a top-tier military superpower. The performance parameters of the Su57 simply cannot be mentioned in the same breath as the J20 or F22, especially in stealth coatings, radars, and electronic systems. China therefore has no concern about India cooperating with Russia on the Su57 project. By the time India, at its usual pace, manages to establish production lines, equip squadrons, and achieve operational capability, Pakistan will long have fielded the J35, China’s sixth-generation fighters such as the J36 and J50 will already be in service, and the J20 fleet will number around 500 aircraft. China will still maintain absolute air superiority over India.
Moreover, Russia India cooperation will once again tightly bind China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh together, strengthening the anti-India alliance in South Asia. China can also use Pakistan to deepen ties with Saudi Arabia, given the serious conflicts of interest between Saudi Arabia and Russia in energy strategy. Sacrificing one unreliable partner in exchange for more reliable ones is not necessarily a bad thing for China. In any case, Russia and China will maintain superficial friendly relations for the long term because our economies are highly complementary and already deeply intertwined. We share many common interests regarding Japan and the US military presence in East Asia.
I also want to mention a famous and somewhat comical episode in arms-purchase history. In 2004, Russia sold the decommissioned aircraft carrier Gorshkov to India for a symbolic one dollar, with India paying for refurbishment, upgrades, and weapon integration. After repeated delays and price hikes, this free carrier ultimately brought Russia 2.9 billion dollars, more than the cost of a brand-new carrier. A struggling Russian shipyard managed to keep thousands of workers employed and regained its ability to refit and maintain large warships, all thanks to that single order.
It is often said that Indians can scam people from every country on Earth, but only Russians can scam Indians again and again. The Su57 program originally began as a joint Russia India development project. After pouring in money, India discovered it had no access to any core technology and was merely serving as an ATM. In anger, India withdrew from the program and the funds already invested went down the drain. This time around, the Russians still have plenty of ways to extract money from India.
Of course, as the Chinese saying goes, birds of a feather flock together. When Russia was at its weakest, India stabbed it in the back. Modi visited Kyiv to show friendship with Zelensky, paid for discounted Russian oil and gas in rupees, leaving Russia unable to buy anything useful on the international market, and only later, under strong Russian pressure, agreed to pay in renminbi. These two countries truly are paragons of human morality and natural allies. China should not interfere with Russia India cooperation. We should simply wish them well.
In grand strategy, what China needs to do first is continuously raise its own strength and lock in truly loyal friends and partners. As for fickle countries, let our opponents choose first. Regarding Russia and Europe, China should let the United States pick first. No matter whether the United States chooses Russia or Europe, China can calmly cooperate with the remaining side. The strong do not care whether their allies are powerful enough. What matters is never allowing oneself to be dragged down by allies. Nations that have stood the test and maintained friendship deserve strong support. Nations that constantly shift positions require constant vigilance. Therefore, I am not worried about Russia India military and energy cooperation. Let the bullets fly for a while.