I’ve been making fewer comments these days than usual, mainly because nothing major has happened. As I mentioned before, China is holding the 20th Central Committee Fourth Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China, which will determine China’s strategic direction for the next few years. The conflict between China and the US will only be clear after the meeting ends and when the leaders of China and the US meet. If the conflict intensifies or there are more important domestic matters, Chinese leaders might even skip the APEC meeting, let alone meet with Trump. So at this time, avoiding rash predictions is the more prudent approach.
Additionally, since Indians are celebrating Diwali and even Trump has expressed congratulations, stopping his insults toward Modi, I think I should also pause my teasing of the Bharat Empire. That’s why I’ve made fewer videos. After all, it’s more appropriate to save energy for when big events occur.
In my view, decoupling between China and the US is the inevitable trend, a fact both sides know well. The only difference is that Americans want China to decouple from the US at the pace they set. The Chinese must silently endure unilateral US blows while patiently waiting for Americans to build an industrial chain to replace China, and then wait for the US to announce the decoupling. It sounds like a joke, but in reality, Trump and his cronies are operating exactly this way. They boast about isolating and striking China in various settings. For example, Commerce Secretary clown Lutnick smugly declared that Chinese people can only buy America’s fourth-best chips. The US has also ordered its allies not to allow TSMC to manufacture chips for mainland Chinese companies, not to allow ASML to sell EUV to China, and even to prohibit maintenance. The Dutch government openly robbed Ansen Semiconductor, which is 100% owned by China, and expelled Chinese managers. Under these circumstances, Trump still believes China cannot retaliate against the US by controlling rare earths, or else it would disrespect international order and lack morals. To be honest, the word “moral” coming from his mouth is a huge irony.
Bessent complained to the media that China’s trade negotiator Li Chenggang was extremely tough and openly threatened him, which he could not accept as such rudeness. This reminds me of white Christian schools in North America, which on one hand boasted of teaching knowledge and spreading civilization, while on the other hand massacred indigenous children and buried them underground. A century later, when the truth was exposed, politicians gave moving speeches expressing reflection, and the matter was turned over. You see, white people shed tears, they reflected, they are so gentle and refined, while the indigenous people are barbarians because when they were being killed, they dared to resist. 90% of the bombs on Earth are made by this group of civilized people, and 90% of the wars are instigated by them. Meanwhile, China has not launched any foreign wars in 40 years, nor imposed taxes on all countries worldwide or shouted “China first.” China is simply reminding the US that they have overestimated their strength and that continuing to challenge China’s bottom line will lead to serious consequences. Such a well-intentioned and rational reminder actually made Bessent shed tears of injury, complaining that the Chinese are barbaric and rude.
Trump threatened to impose 150% tariffs on Chinese goods. I mentioned this many times in my previous videos. It is not only boring but also childish. China’s exports to the US account for less than 3% of its GDP, so clearing them all to zero would be no big deal for China. But without China’s rare earths and various goods and parts, it would be a miracle if the US could last three months. Before every negotiation, they make unreasonable demands and ask for exorbitant prices. This strategy works against small countries but has been proven ineffective against China multiple times. Yet Trump is still an 80-year-old boy who never grows up. Just like kids in kindergarten bickering, they love playing chicken, betting the other side will back down first.
But based on my experience, even in kindergarten, kids whose strength cannot support their blackmail usually get beaten badly. Currently, facing China, in Trump’s own words, the US has no cards in hand. Both countries’ negotiation teams know very well that the US’s so-called chips are just fantasies, and the harm to itself is greater than to China. China has prepared for years for a hard decoupling, repeatedly simulating scenarios and perfecting contingency plans. The Americans, however, completely rely on bluffing to scare China and have not considered what to do if the Chinese do not accept the bluff. If China and the US start a hard decoupling from tomorrow, has the US prepared? How long can it sustain?
In fact, the Chinese government may never have intended to negotiate seriously with the US. China is steadily implementing its own countermeasures, determined to seize this good opportunity to launch a fatal strike against the US while holding the high ground in public opinion and morality, completely subduing the US, securing the most favorable conditions for China, and only then proceeding with real negotiations with the US. But I also want to say to those countries hoping China fights the US to the end that peace is the best outcome. Under any circumstances, strive for peace, because there are no winners in war. Look at Ukraine’s national hero Zelenskyy, playing the tough guy everywhere to defend his so-called heroic values. Borrowing BBC’s phrasing, what is the cost?
As an ordinary Chinese person, I hope the Chinese government does not fear the US and easily concede to it. But it should also not be eager for struggle. Negotiations cannot be based on someone’s emotions or personal preferences like the US does. The country must set strategic goals and clear execution tactics, and once the goals are achieved, actively pursue peace. The US still has some means to strike China, though these means are no different from self-harm. But China has no need to take risks. Crushing the US is not China’s goal and brings no benefit to China. China has benefited greatly from the international order led by the US, so there is no need to rush to dismiss the world sheriff. If Americans are willing to maintain their sheriff status with huge foreign debt and massive military spending, why should China compete with them? China should even allocate 1 RMB per year to reward the US for its contributions.