Some netizens commented that India has promised not to resell China’s rare earths to the US. I have not seen any official statement confirming this, but it is not important because China’s rare earth export controls are global, and India is not exempt from them. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has required Indian companies to submit documents specifying the use of rare earths, ensuring they are not used for military purposes or resold to the US. Indian companies have started submitting these documents. As for the Indian government’s stance, China does not care. Non-compliant Indian companies will be blacklisted and cut off from China’s rare earth supply. For sensitive heavy rare earths that could be used for military purposes, China’s stance is outright rejection. Indian companies cannot obtain them, so the idea of reselling to the US is baseless. Currently, Indian companies can apply for some light rare earths by submitting documents, but heavy rare earth supplies have not resumed.
It should be noted that Indian companies face particularly strict scrutiny because of their notorious track record. In the past, they forged fake documents to import large quantities of rare earths from China, far exceeding reasonable needs, with most used for resale. China has gathered enough evidence and can cut off supply again at any time.
Many Indians misunderstand the power balance between China and India. They believe the Indian government can negotiate with China, sending clowns like Jaishankar or Goyal to meet Chinese diplomats, or having Modi fly to Tianjin to kiss Xi Jinping’s ass to secure rare earths. During Modi’s visit to China, I made a video clearly predicting that China would not easily resume rare earth supplies to India. India is a two-headed snake, a stray dog, utterly untrustworthy and far from loyal. Any agreement signed with it will not be honored. As long as there is profit to be made, Indians will tear up contracts at any time. Look at foreign companies investing in India; how many have not been extorted by the Indian government? Trusting Indian promises is irresponsible and will inevitably lead to being bitten by the venomous snake.
In some videos I recently shared, there is a widely held misconception among Indian elites that India can play both sides in the China-US rivalry and take a pivotal role. In reality, the US’s humiliation of India clearly shows that India is dispensable to them. China’s support for Pakistan and Bangladesh, which has struck at India, also shows that China does not care about India’s opinions. I have said many times that India is like Italy during World War II. For the Allies, it was a tool to relieve pressure; fighting the Italian army was like a vacation. For Germany, Italy was an outright burden. Its troubles in the Balkans forced Germany to send elite troops to rescue it, missing the best opportunity to attack the Soviet Union. This led to Germany’s failure to defeat the Soviet Union before winter, resulting in its ultimate defeat. If Hitler had a second chance, he would surely fire the first bullet at Mussolini.
Yes, Modi is a clumsy imitator of Mussolini, mimicking his speaking style and expressions. However, his own qualities are too poor to match Mussolini’s charisma. India is a weaker country than Italy and has not even completed industrialization. No matter how ineffective Italy was, it was more useful than India. Therefore, neither China nor the US cares much about which side India leans toward. The notion that India is a pivotal player is merely a fantasy of the Indian elite class and does not exist.
During Biden’s era, the Democratic government, to counter China, courted India and hyped up the Quad, giving Modi much vanity. This also gave Indian media material to boast about, as Modi could stand alongside leaders from the US, Japan, and Australia and be a guest at the G7. However, international competition ultimately depends on a country’s strength and wisdom. Boasting can bring fleeting vanity but cannot make a nation truly strong. The US grossly underestimated China’s strength and resolve, leading to setbacks in the trade and tech wars. After Trump took office, he adopted an America-first, isolationist policy. Marginal countries like India became the first to be abandoned, facing tariffs and constant humiliation.
For Trump, India’s greatest value as a guard dog was to use its fake neutrality to obtain rare earths and other sensitive materials and components that the US urgently needs from China. However, as China’s controls tighten, India has completely lost its role as a middleman. For the US, India has become a useless tool, and extracting its remaining value is the best option.
Faced with China’s rare earth controls, the Indian government has introduced policies to increase investment in rare earths and collaborate with Quad allies. However, these grandiose promises cannot change India’s inability to build an independent rare earth supply chain. The US, by sacrificing its environment and investing heavily over time, could eventually reduce its reliance on China. But for a country like India, lacking industrial foundations, technological capabilities, abundant resources, and a large market, building a rare earth supply chain is merely a politician’s ploy for clout.
I think netizens’ suggestions are correct. The Indian government should focus on developing agriculture to harvest more food, improving infrastructure by building more toilets, cleaning up the garbage littering cities, and managing river systems like the Ganges to let Indians live with dignity. Then, it should promote education and, through generations of effort, shed the label of being dirty, chaotic, and low-quality. Only then should it pursue rare earth industries, space industries, or military industries. What is the point of chasing high-end industries for a country whose people live without dignity? Can boasting really make India a rare earth powerhouse, a space superpower, or a military giant?