The disparity in the India Pakistan air battle undoubtedly shocked the Indian high command. The Modi government wants to bypass the tender process and directly import 114 Rafale fighter jets from France at a unit price of 200 million US dollars. My analysis is that this is to obtain more parts, assemble new aircraft to cover up the Air Force’s heavy losses, and thereby pass the election. However, such a large procurement also faces strong opposition within the military, because no matter how many propaganda teams Modi sends around the world to tout victory, and even though the whole country celebrates for 10 days, the military high command knows the real outcome.
The Rafale was crushed when facing the J10CE, and buying more Rafales would only consume more PL15 missiles without any real meaning. Moreover, China and Pakistan are discussing the delivery of PL17 or even PL21 missiles to address potential production shortages for the J35. After all, amid the rapid expansion of China’s navy and air force, besides the Air Force needing to retire large numbers of J10 and J11 aircraft, the Fujian carrier and the Sichuan amphibious assault ship both require catapult versions of the J35, and the under-construction 004 nuclear-powered carrier, with a displacement estimated to exceed 110,000 tons, will also need to equip a large number of carrier-based aircraft. The J35 squadrons are definitely training on land fields and the Fujian, and once the carrier is launched, they will be directly equipped with complete J35 squadrons. Therefore, for the Indian Air Force to compete for air superiority, it must have a mature fifth-generation fighter.
Pakistan is currently waiting for China’s J35, so the Indian military believes that in the absence of access to the F35, the only option is to seek Russia’s sale of Su57 fighters, and transferring the production line for self-production would be even better. After experiencing multiple blows from boastful claims falling flat, the Indian Air Force no longer believes that coffin makers like Hindustan Aeronautics can produce qualified fifth-generation fighters, so they strongly demand the procurement of Su57 fighters. Some people think that the Rafale losses were greater than those of the Su30, which shows that Russian weapons are more suitable for India than Western ones. To be honest, my personal view is that the biggest weakness of the Indian Air Force is not outdated equipment, but that this bunch of idiots controls the military.
These people lack basic understanding of technology and modern warfare, and they completely fail to grasp the technological gaps between Russia, China, and Western countries. They think that as long as a fighter is declared a fifth-generation one, its combat performance will be roughly the same. Under such cognition, they believe that the so-called 4.5-generation Rafale can crush Pakistan’s fourth-generation fighters J10 and JF17, but reality slapped them hard in the face. Yet this bunch of idiots still do not understand why they were humiliated, naively believing that Russia, which cannot even take down Ukraine, can save India.
Let us first talk about reality. Russia’s economic size is roughly equivalent to China’s Guangdong Province or Jiangsu Province. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, its industrial capacity has been in serious decline. More than a decade ago, it could still refit the Gorshkov and hand it over to India. Now its Kuznetsov carrier has been lying idle in the shipyard for many years, almost rusted into scrap metal. If it had industrial, technological, and financial strength, would it let this carrier be so miserable? Ukraine has indeed received military weapon aid from the entire NATO, and there are a small number of Western mercenaries, but the main force confronting Russia on the front lines is still the Ukrainian army. Even with a large number of North Korean soldiers as cannon fodder, the Russians still cannot advance against Ukraine, with extremely heavy casualties. The root cause is backward military equipment. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has basically been wiped out by Ukraine, and for the Russians to push the front line forward by 100 meters, it might cost dozens of lives.
Russia’s air force is currently suffering equally severe losses, with Su57 production at only a dozen per year, and they still need to supply the front lines. With Russia’s current military-industrial capacity, stabilizing the needs of the Ukrainian battlefield is the top priority, so how could it possibly produce Su57s for India? We need to note that the last time China made a large-scale purchase of Russian weapons was in 2015, that is, ten years ago. China bought 24 SU35s and 32 S400 air defense systems, which is equipment for four battalions. At that time, experts from China’s domestic military-industrial enterprises generally believed that China no longer needed Russian equipment, that domestically produced weapons were better in most indicators, and that China led by a wide margin in electronic systems. Moreover, many experts explicitly stated on TV programs that Russian weapons are crude, far inferior to Western ones, and have almost no value in actual combat. But to verify reality, China still bought the last batch of Russian-made weapons. The result was that the SU35, which Russia boasted as a war god, performed even worse than China’s J10 and J11 in confrontations, let alone the J16 and J20. This further strengthened China’s determination to independently develop weapons and equipment. Yes, to become a military power, independent research and development is the only path. Or, you need a reliable ally.
India’s current situation is that it betrayed its former master Russia because it declined. But the new master, the US, does not trust it, not only refusing to give it advanced equipment but also constantly humiliating it. India has been purchasing engines for its Tejas fighter from the US, but deliveries have been repeatedly delayed, and the Indians have no coping strategy. In fact, whether Russia or France, their technological research and development capabilities and economic strength are not on the same level as true superpowers like China and the US. The reason the Rafale was defeated is not only because of the low quality of Indian pilots, but also because its radar is inferior to China’s, and its missiles are inferior to China’s. Let us not talk about the missile gap for now, since Pakistan’s existing PL15 missiles may be upgraded, and they will obtain more advanced PL17 or even PL21.
Let us talk about radar. China’s J10CE is equipped with gallium nitride radar, while the Rafale is equipped with gallium arsenide radar, which lags behind gallium nitride radar in detection accuracy and range. This is an innate disadvantage. However, only China and the US can mass-produce gallium nitride, and although France can get it, it comes at a high cost. Let me add more despairing news for the Indians: the Chinese Air Force’s J20 is being upgraded with silicon carbide radar, which is even more advanced technology. Not to mention that China’s sixth-generation fighters already have multiple models in test flight, with Shenyang’s J50 and Chengdu’s J36 approaching mass production. How could India possibly build regional hegemony through purchasing weapons and equipment?
I think if the Indian military’s heads were normal, it should realize that only China and the US can produce advanced military chips. Russia’s chip technology is far behind China and the US, and its Su57 is the same. Strictly speaking, it cannot be considered a true fifth-generation fighter like the F22 and J20. Even so, the Russians must first meet their own battlefield needs. Even if they sell a small number to India or authorize India to produce them, I ask you, where do the materials come from? Do you have enough rare earth production? Even US arms companies are on the verge of stopping production, let alone you Indians. Have you ever bought advanced chips? Use cow dung chips? What about engines? Use cow urine engines to drive them?