Trump’s Trade War and Its Aftermath
The trade war initiated by Donald Trump led to a gradual decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies. This dealt a severe blow to China’s economy and technology sector, putting the country on the defensive. However, Trump failed to effectively unite his allies. By imposing tariffs on them and demanding they pay more for security, he caused Western allies, including Japan and South Korea, to take a wait-and-see approach. Their reluctance to immediately join the U.S. in the trade and technology wars prevented China from being completely overwhelmed.
The Threat of Trump and His Election Defeat
Trump’s presidency was deeply damaging to China, with the prospect of another four years under his leadership creating a sense of “fear and suffocation.” His defeat to Joe Biden came as a relief, providing China with a much-needed reprieve. His loss is attributed to his brand of radicalism, which clashed with the values of America’s left-leaning populace and new immigrants.
The Performance and Impact of the Biden Administration
Over his four years in office, President Biden is viewed as having missed a crucial, final opportunity to defeat China, even as China made a series of mistakes. Biden’s decision to support Ukraine and isolate Russia was met with delight in China, with some Chinese netizens even jokingly suggesting he might be a secret member of the Chinese Communist Party.
The State of China’s Economy and Technology Sector
With the strong U.S. dollar cycle reportedly coming to an end, China’s economy—which had seemed on the brink of collapse—is showing signs of hope. Despite poor macroeconomic data, the Chinese public is regaining confidence, believing the current difficulties are temporary and that the country will eventually recover. In the tech sector, Chinese companies have largely adapted to U.S. sanctions and are now leading in several areas. The prevailing belief is that the U.S. will ultimately lose the technology war.
Views on the U.S. Election Outcome
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If Kamala Harris Wins: A Harris victory would be celebrated in China. It’s seen as a positive outcome for LGBTQ groups and undocumented immigrants in the U.S., and for Ukraine, which would likely receive more funding. Ultimately, a Harris presidency is viewed as a path toward China winning the future.
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If Donald Trump Wins: There would be no tension or nervousness in China. The reasoning is that even if Trump were to sacrifice Ukraine, he would struggle to regain the support of Russia and Vladimir Putin. Without Russia as an ally, it would be difficult for Trump to successfully lead the U.S. in defeating China.