Recent military movements, particularly the reported withdrawal of US and UK personnel from key bases in the Middle East, signal a period of heightened tension and potential conflict. This action, reminiscent of clearing the deck before a major operation, points to a volatile international landscape where traditional rules and diplomatic channels appear to be breaking down. The focus is on potential US action against Iran, with regional actors like Israel and Saudi Arabia bracing for repercussions, highlighting a complex and dangerous geopolitical puzzle.
This environment aligns with analyses suggesting a fundamental regression in international relations. Prominent scholars argue that the current state of global politics is not a sudden turn but a continuation of a decline that began years ago, marked by events like Brexit and the onset of major trade wars. The concept of a stable, rules-based liberal order is seen as crumbling, with the current crises—from arbitrary arrests of foreign leaders to overt military threats—being merely the visible dust from this collapse. A significant shift is the overt acknowledgment by a major power of a bipolar world structure, effectively sidelining other nations and international bodies. This framework encourages a logic where might makes right, and strategic unpredictability becomes a tool, creating dead-end situations for smaller states caught between competing giants.
Looking ahead, predictions for the next decade are sobering. The core rivalry between the two dominant powers is expected to intensify but remain contained within a framework of managed competition, avoiding direct large-scale war. For other nations, this will necessitate a complex, issue-by-issue alignment, balancing economic and security interests between the poles. The era of deep globalization is considered over, entering a “deep water” phase of逆全球化 (de-globalization) where protectionism, nationalism, and the “securitization” of all issues—from trade to technology—become mainstream. This shift is predicted to increase costs, reduce efficiency, and lower living standards for ordinary people globally, with a collective reconsideration of its value only likely after a prolonged period of hardship.
For individuals and businesses, this new reality demands pragmatic adaptation. It requires abandoning the幻想 (illusion) of a return to a cooperative global past and prioritizing political risk assessment in all international endeavors. While this bipolar world presents significant risks, it also creates distinct spheres of influence. Some regions may paradoxically experience a “fragile peace” maintained by a balance of terror, becoming relative havens of stability compared to areas of open conflict or political subjugation. Ultimately, the current period is viewed as a historical phase of regression. Navigating it successfully demands clear-eyed recognition of the changed rules, a focus on maintaining stability where possible, and an understanding that national sovereignty and internal complexity cannot be reduced to simple narratives of liberation or intervention by external powers.